Fooled: What Brings Happiness?
Things that come with little help from luck are more resistant to randomness
My girlfriend pleaded with me to sleep early today, a plea I got at around 10pm. But while reading “Fooled by Randomness” by Nassim Taleb late into the night, at around 12:15 pm Nassim narrated a story that I couldn't resist the urge to not only finish but also write about.
I spent another 1 hour or so that midnight writing what I'm about to share with you.
To my girlfriend, I had to confess why I couldn't yield to her plea later at dawn. She's such a great girl and she overlooked my lack of sleep (I've not been taking enough of it lately). 😂
Early note on Fooled by Randomness
Croesus, king of Lydia in Ancient Europe was considered the richest man of his time. So rich till this day, the Roman languages use the expression "rich as Croesus" to describe a person of excessive wealth.
He had a visitor one day...
His visitor was Solon, the Greek legislator known for for his dignity, upright morals, humility, frugality, wisdom, intelligence and courage.
When Solon arrived at his place he didn't display the smallest surprise at the wealth and splendor surrounding his host, nor the tiniest admiration for the their owner.
Can you imagine that!!!
Croesus was so irked by the manifest lack of impression on Solon's part that he attempted to extract from him some acknowledgement.
To do this he asked him if he had known a happier man than him.
Solon cited the life of a man who led a noble existence and died while in battle. Croesus prodded for more, Solon similar heroic but terminated lives, until Croesus, irate, asked him point blank if he was not to be considered the happiest man of all.
I like how Nassim Taleb summarized Solon's answer.
“That which came with the help of luck could be taken away by luck (and often rapidly and unexpectedly at that)”
Deep (for I who often stretch the boundaries of luck). 💯💯💯
The flip side of that is even more compelling...
"Things that come with little help from luck are more resistant to randomness"
Another deep words which I will often refer to in the future.
I'm not sure if Croesus fully grasped the message of Solon during the conversation but soon he will.
Not long after this conversation, Croesus lost a battle to Persian king Cyrus. Worst of the event was that Croesus was about to be burned alive, yes burned alive. Then he shouted (something like) "Solon, you were right".
Cyrus of Persia asked about the nature of such unusual invocations and he told him Solon's warning.
Here's the twist
This impressed Cyrus so much that he decided to spare Croesus' life, as he reflected on the possibilities as far as his own fate was concerned.
See the role of luck and randomness
But remember as Solon opined, another thing can happen again and Croesus' head will pay for it.
I'm still thinking about this narration but I got comment to add now.
“Things that come with little help from luck are more resistant to randomness”
This point to me is worth ruminating over again and again.
Baring in mind that Solon said this in respect to the question of happiness asked by Croesus even makes it more compelling to think on.
If happiness is your goal, it will be futile to base it on things that are determined by just randomness because they come and go at will and your happiness shouldn't.
But what are things that are not subjected to randomness or less subjected to it.
A trade with 50% return overnight is surely randomness on your side, on a day it is not on your side, you may lose your capital.
As I start my Improved Financial Health Community I am thinking about values that may help our community members.
Without doubt, we all seek happiness and even pursue it. To say we might have one point or the other think material wealth is what will bring us such happiness will not be a misstatement. The reality is a lot of us still think so and that's fine. I know it's fine trust me.
I wrote a thread once about the need to embrace our carvings and even attain them.
Because attaining is the best mechanism to teach us that what we really want doesn't lie on this mountain. The earlier we attain, the earlier we realize. I am loving what the community holds for people already, strong values. 😍
No doubt the community will help people accumulate material wealth among other things but beyond that, we need to deal with the questions of randomness as well.
The question “what brings happiness” needs to be placed side by side with this quote again
“Things that come with little help from luck are more resistant to randomness”
Think about that.
The above made me remember a presentation I gave recently on chance and choice.
And this as well…
Michael’s words sings, remember Croesus, Solon, Cyrus… And Maybe You.